Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Whipsaw, expecting much more to come.

The bears and bulls both seem to be getting aggressive here. I expect some nice trading swings over the next couple weeks. This week especially b/c of the expiration.

Bulls defended 900 strongly today. More importantly how?
Via dollar fear selling, and defensive stocks rally?
Not the 2 strongest or most bullish signals.
The market looks like to me it wants 875 here badly as it's next temporary home.

Called and caught the LVS today for a nice double today off the gap up. (w/ may puts) In the stockstop.org chat room live intra-day. For day traders, who like to interact or at least "watch" what other day traders are looking at or thinking, I would recommend at least checking it out. (also on my blogroll)

Picking your spots and fading the gaps here is trading phenomenally here.

As long as we are above 875 spx, I think the better trades are to find gap ups and pops to go short.

When we do get to 875, I would look to be neutral, step back and re-evaluate the bigger picture and weekly charts, etc. I agree w/ others on my blogroll, there should be a heck of a fight at the 875 level. As long as we are above it, I maintain a more bearish bias.

How is CYN back from Friday looking so far? geez louise....$$

Take profits when they come, and the shorter timeline trading the better here.
There are plenty of gaps here to play. Heck ONLY play the gaps, they are rocking here. Cash heavy by the end of the day.

I would still be looking to dip into short oil and gold here. However, it appears I might be 2 days early to the dance, in terms of the idea, but I have a very strong feeling that Friday's CPI is going to be a sell the news. Sentiment seems like way to much "extreme inflation expected here", and the we know the hype rarely ever lives up to the actual news.

Most anything which is excessive in anticipation, almost always leads to a less than "spectacular" event when it does actually arrive.

AEM looks to be setting up here just like TM did last week. No earnings coming up like TM, but the CPI is and I have a pretty good hunch we don't get the "extreme inflation" that is getting baked in here. I mean it makes sense, heck it's about the only way to get yet another "pump" into the stock market, scare people about the dollar immediately!!

If AEM holds flat here, or hopefully even pushes up a little higher going into CPI, I will be playing June Puts on it Thursday, for a swing trade. So put that one on next week's calls, with the early entry.

Mr Kudlow, you are a passionate man, but I have to tell you sir, but we are NOT going to DOW 10,000 and having a Dollar Rally. Pick one or the other and cross your fingers, b/c that's the best shot ya got. You do not get to have your cake and eat it too.

If I recall correctly, the last time we had a bull market and a dollar rally was in 2000. But I think the .com mania, 2% unemployment, and lack of national debt had a little something to do with that. Don't you?

ANF looks pretty nice here, for a long going into Friday's earnings. (close out Thurs by close)
- If it gaps down tomorrow, its a 48 hr buy to me, w/ stops. Or even safer, buy the gap down, close it out by the close and do the same if another gap down arises on Thurs.

If LVS gaps up again tommorow, its a short again to me, I would watch the technicals and look to short it for a gap/day trade. I believe it will close the week under 10.00, so I hope they pop it up again tomorrow off the gap. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Watch the russell. It looks weak here.
TZA (on a gap down/market gap up) would be screaming BUY ME.

Have a great weak, and spend all your money ASAP, b/c the dollar is going to be worth ZERO tommorow!!! LOL
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