Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Toyota Motors - early entry to one of next weeks Plays of the Week

is setting up a very nice short here.

Earnings are Friday, so it's Tricky. And to "game" earnings is a gamble, not a trader's play.

I think they sell off HARD on earnings, i feel very strongly about that, and I see TM below 80 next week, actually close to 75. (and that's conservative)
So play it here, without having maximum exposure to earnings. Id look at the June 75 Puts. (trading at 1.70 today). I see them > 3.00 by next week.

Playing the June's let's us still short it, yet not be as exposed to the earnings on Friday.
(may is gaming earnings, and too risky to call or recommend)

For non-options traders, to play the stock short, I would look to enter short immediatly AFTER earnings.

I have NO IDEA what kinda numbers they report, no clue. (no one does, and that is a sucker's play)

But what I see as the Trader's play here, is this stock has basically NO SHORTS...none.
0.73% of the float actually from the data.

There was a very good reason I called JRCC long, in ADDITION to it's chart. (way too many shorts before earnings)

No clue what TM will report, but there is ZERO squeeze potential on them, none.

So the most bullish thing i see for TM is "good earnings", then everyone takes profits, as it has had an incredible run, and the catalyst is now gone.

If you haven't taken MAJORITY profits on LCC and FEED, then you are a pig.....and deserve to be slaughtered. (don't get greedy!)
How is that GME>30 entry short trade looking so far?


  1. Be careful

  2. Erik, I took profit on bx today. Take a look at stp. over 11% short float out there. Looking at the chart, it is very bullish. Looks like going much higher. I am holding on to EGLE all the way into earning. Thanks so much as always sharing your diligent work.

  3. USDJPY is topping out on daily chart (short term).

  4. Eric, Thank you for TM. I made $1,200 on the puts today. Couldn't pass up 80 cents on 15 contracts. Thank you. GS is next

  5. Congrats! Sweet!

    take a look at CYN & ZION

  6. let gs come to you....

    dont target it as "next"

    jmo, fwiw

  7. gs...too many people "WANT" it to be "next"....

    which is why it hasn't been.....

    in hindsight.

    hey i "want" to short gs as much as the next trader lol.... its time will come one day

  8. TM is a short with or without earnings---earnings will just amplify the short profits---Doesn't TM announce AUG 4th --2am

  9. I don't comment at sites with this level of comment security---
    just so you know---
    My time is way too valuable, compared to one or two assholes who might decide to post something stupid--here-
    to go thru all the bells and whistles just to get a comment posted---god it takes long enough just to type the comment out---You have no respect for your visitors---
    nothing personal, just business---
    and for goodness sakes---why Don't you use a social comment --comment section--like Disqus?