Monday, May 18, 2009

There went the 875 bounce...

I said it was likely going to happen......

If you watch futures, you know they bottomed at 876 last night, and from then on (overnight and day session) the market kept going up, and up and up!

That's why it is wise to glance at the futures chart before the day begins. (think or swim has a nice set up)
- to watch HOW exactly the gap up, or gap down actually developed.

- Bottom at 876...going up, up since that = more bullish

- basically up and down all nite, just happen to end up = more bearish

So for anyone who says futures do not matter, they must not fade opening gaps too often.

Will it go higher? -- I don't know
Turnaround Tue, take it all back? -- I don't know

My intermediate stance remains to let the market tip it's hand, we are in a new chapter here now, and earnings is no longer going to be the driving theme, something must replace it. I don't think that is possible, for the bulls to replace it, yet get the same results, so I do lean bearish. But again, this is a new chapter here and I think it's best to see the market trade in it for a week before pushing on it hard.

On a daily note:
If we do gap up tomorrow, is Tue a day-trade short? Yes, I think it's almost a gimme.

Gap n Go's (market gap up, then continue up, or gap down, then continue down) do happen.

Two Gap n Go's back to back however, is extremely rare.

With that being said, the market typically likes to make it tricky, so watch us open flat, or slightly down tomorrow. LOL

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