Thursday, May 14, 2009

Options Expiration Friday

AEM - target 44 (1-2 weeks). I will post a thread w/ charts on it little later on.

When I narrow down the other ones (longs, shorts)

How was that ANF running into earnings today......... :o)
- hope no one was shorting down there close to 875spx

For tomorrow, I "think" 875 holds and I "think" 900 holds. Other than that, who knows?? I sure do not.

I think CASH is the best trade on expiration day.
(for the options lovers, like myself who like to trade w/ a couple hundred dollars on expo day)

Anyone who uses Max Pain theory as a minor adjunct to trading, knows spy's is 87.
...again max pain used ALONE by itself, is a sure fire way to get your clock-cleaned.

But to completely turn your head and refuse to even look at it, is also not the smartest thing either.

The best set up scenario that I see would be a gap UP tomorrow, to go enter short.

For any of you options expiration traders i am not "recommending" these. But wanted to bring them up to watch.

If you know how to day-trade options, and you have for a while, and you have made nice profits this week, wont risk any more than 1/5 of your profits from this week, and look to sell at least half at a double, thereby equal to moving stops to break-even. I do have some "ideas", for tomorrow intra-day only.

I think that we head lower tomorrow into the close. So I would LOVE to see a gap up. I might be dead wrong tho.....I might.

(only If we market gap up)

LVS may 10 puts
BGZ may 40 calls
SKF may 45 calls

When the MGM $7.00 stock sale news initially came out, lvs tanked right along with it. (sector relationship fear, which pretty much is always the initial reaction)

Then the next day (today) it rallied and separated from mgm. (wait, that's just them....NOT us!...again we have seen this back and forth psychology before, many times).

Call me crazy, but with the news of MGM selling stock at 7.00, I do not see many people "drooling" to buy LVS right here, right now, and risk HOLDING it over the entire weekend.

Just like w/ any event (earnings, bailout, rule change, merger, etc etc). The first reaction is usually the correct reaction.

If LVS came out with news such as "Don't compare us to MGM, we are NOT selling shares below our current price, I assure you"...then that would be one thing. (but they haven't).

Max pain is 7.5 (again, nothing to bet the farm on alone by itself....but worth being noted)

Short term wave structure, "looks" like this is the end of the wave 4 up, about to start 5, for EWT traders to consider/ look at.
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