Friday, May 15, 2009

Weekly Recap/Preview - Change of Theme

So how was that gap-up today...... was it a fade? ;o)

On the Swing / Intermediate term outlook:

First of all, the earnings season is basically done here.
That was a seriously sick trend, that was raining money.

Of the past 3-4 weeks, the majority of "longs" that I called had one thing in common....earnings.

a) Find who reports the next week
b) Select the ones w/ the highest short float
c) Pick the ones w/ best charts

Buy in 3-5 days before ER, and sell the end of the day BEFORE earnings.
(fslr, jrcc, ma, anf)....Went 4 for 4. (there were more, but these all shared that underlying same trend)

I got an e-mail / comment asking if I still thought ANF was going higher, to 29 after earnings?
- I have no idea, (probably not) but if it does it sure as heck wont be w/ my money.

That is the exact reason I said sell Thurs at the close, get out BEFORE earnings!

I don't have a crystal ball, that's all it was was piggybacking on short covering into earnings.

We saw WFC blow out
We saw GOOG beat
We saw enough of the household names beat ER, that the trend was set pretty darn bullish out of the gates. So strap me in, and let's play ball, I will ride that trend all day long and via the SAFE way too!

Watch the news, charts, and sentiment and whatever "coincidences" you can, and there are trends, it's just if its one we were able to see.

So instead of "gambling" on earnings, since the common retail investor's biggest fear remember is "missing the big rally/up-move". We front run on him/her, and bail before him/her too!

BAM, there are your longs of the week. Buy 3-5 days prior and SELL BEFORE the report.
(seriously, that's it....once we saw the trend was "upside surprise"...who in the heck would want to risk being short for that kinda pain?)

I am just re-iterating the rationale for basically every long call the past few weeks, again.
This does not work EVERY earnings season (although it does for most).

The KEY POINT is that the trend has to be established as a bullish earnings season first, then only when that is confirmed...then you "pre-run" the later plays where the bears are all still caught sitting too heavily on. Yet of course BAIL before the actual earnings, to avoid the risk exposure, just capture the pre-run that's all......thank you, bye bye.

As far as past shorts (cyn,gme,lvs,tm,spg). Those were from t/a and sentiment.

I am no stock picker guru. I just try to trade what the market gives me.
If you watch it close enough, and just look for trends, they will come to you.

If they don't......don't lower your standards for it, be stubborn!

On to NEXT week, this trade is now in the rear view mirror. It was great while it was here though.

I am looking to short the gap ups, but that is the about only thing I really like here though, I do lean bearish, but since we are changing into a different "theme" here, I would only feel good shorting gap ups, since it's kinda of a new chapter here ya know.

And avoid the gap downs..... long OR short.

I "think" the market goes lower next week. But I don't feel too confident trading it yet, b/c again we are transitioning out of earnings season killer trend, and half my trades were based just on that trend.

I think that the lack of earnings is a BEARISH thing. As obviously the presence of them was a bullish thing. However, since it's a "new theme" here...I don't want to mash the gas, till we read a few pages in this new chapter.

Does that explanation make sense??

Besides AEM (which I already mentioned as Thurs entry...w/ 44 target).

I will NOT have any additional "hedge" longs or shorts calls for next week.

I am not just going to call something just to call it, or b/c i feel "pretty good" about it.
If i make a call, it does not mean it's going to be correct!!!
(It only means in my opinion, I like it ALOT).

I would like to watch the market trade around here, with out earnings for a little bit. Plus step back and re-evaluate all the WEEKLY charts to formulate and watch.

Have a great weekend.....!
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