Saturday, May 9, 2009

Hedge Play of the Week, May 11-15 (ANF, CYN, LVS)


ANF (long): 19% short, earnings before the open on Friday. Same trend as other pre-earnings longs. Looking for some short covering going into it here. (sell before earnings,no "gaming"! (thurs by the close)
- Target 29.00/200ma

(this is the only long I like from the way I weekly hedge trade)

I was looking a little at sqnm and akns long (but way too speculative and too low volume to "call" here...)

CYN (short): See prior thread w/ chart
- targets: 38.50, 33.00
.
LVS (short): See prior thread w/ chart
- targets: 9.00, 7.80

as far as TM, to not be "in it" already here, is chasing it.....i do think it has more short term downside next week, but to me..if your in it...trail it and run w/ it. If your not, don't chase it.


Also the OIL and GOLD trigger set ups: See prior thread w/ chart

14 comments:

  1. Erik, keep up the great work!

    I like your take and chart on CHRW as a short, I have the May $50 and $45 puts.

    Thanks!

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  2. Erik

    any thoughts on GMCR.

    it has 42.5% short float,
    It didn't go down in mar 09 and had +300% run since nov 08 bottom.

    A Good short candidate once short squeeze is over and volume starts going down ??

    - sky

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  3. Anon1, CHRW....what is that?

    I have a chart on that? where????
    (confused)


    Sky,

    I have never heard of it or looked at it. I am not sure.

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  4. Sky, i dont know....42% short is very scary to be short to me. Heck I don't like shorting if the float is over 10%!! (crowds make me nervous)


    Anon1,

    I don't have a take or a chart on CHRW, i have never heard of that ticker.
    ....wrong blog? lol

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  5. Erik,

    sorry for the confusion!I know you have never covered that.
    I meant could or would you please render an opinion on CHRW technically?

    Thanks!!

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  6. doc
    thanks for your posts over past few days. it was a joy.
    one question i have is how do you short.
    shares or options
    if it is options, do you looks say same month or few months out and how do you track which price points to choose?
    linus

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  7. For me, it all depends on the situation and stock or etf.

    I do all 3.
    -sell short
    -front month options
    -further out options

    If i sell short, it's usually when i am putting on a hedge trade, so i can try to pocket the differance in the trades.

    If i am doing front month options (which is rare), it means I am daytrading, or that I anticipate a big move that day or the very next one. (the theta kills options the closer they are to expo)

    If I am doing further out options, it is speculative and un-hedged, and it's not a move that i might expect to happen "immediatly" but still fairly soon.

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  8. anon, chrw looks like to me it headed to 48 this week

    ???

    i dont follow it too closely though

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  9. thanks for explanation
    linus

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  10. Any concerns with LVS regarding the high percent to float short interest (21.8%)

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  11. Not a lot, heck i might be totally wrong on lvs, but I entered short today.

    Short float (or lack thereof) is something I trade off alot. But that data is issued twice a month. 21% is reflective of April 15th, and it has rallied huge since then, so i think its much lower. (how much? i dont know)

    I like it here, max pain is 7.5, and the technicals are neg divergance for each lower high.

    If the data said 21% short and the stock had NOT moved, then I would assume it to still be about 21%.

    Maybe im timing LVS wrong here, but I like it alot for the rest of this week from here.



    Shall see....

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  12. The 21% short float is from April 15th (as it says AprilB)

    The stock was trading at 4.80 on that date.

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  13. Hey there Erik!
    Excellent call on LVS. Can you check on CTIC for me please?

    BTW, what part of CO are you from? My parent's are in Englewood. Anyways, my wife and I are your loyal follower. :)

    Again, appreciate all your informative posts!

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  14. Ft Carson area....

    thanks for the kind words...

    i don't really have time to check ctic right now tho, i might later...ok

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