Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Window Dressing

could be whats holding the market up here ??
..........well that and the ever crumbling USD!

- preface what I am saying by first making it aware that I am NOT watching tape every 10 minutes of the day intraday currently.
Nor am I trading it currently. Just doing market watching at the end of each day, looking at the longer term trends.

See all the top callers are lining up to get sliced one by one, yet still.

- remember Doug Kass, the one that got "all the fame" for calling the bottom to a T.
,well he has been calling for large down moves and yes a "top" since about spx 900!!!!
That is no knock on Kass. The point is simply........

Ya know how it goes: The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.

Take home message: calling and trying to TRADE tops and bottoms is a fools game.
-better to miss the "turn" yet get all the meat and potatoes, than to pass it up, by "trying" to be cute and catch it. etc. I myself don't always abide by all my own rules 100% of the time. But that doesn't mean it's the "right" thing to do.

This current "short dollar / Long commodities" is about the most lopsided trade we might have seen here, since ohhhhh "short the financials right after LEH". Dunno, but I have to agree w/ Waxie, that come the very start of OCT we are likely to see a monster short squeeze in the dollar, come POST window dressing.

Today, USD was down 1%, yet market was only up .5%.
That is not bullish/healthy. I mean the correlation was only 1:2, that's not good.
That means the buy h hold american investor LOST wealth today being long. *yes lost*

That being said, it sure does NOT mean its time to short the market yet however.
Heck I have NO CLUE....

Daytraders, gap-faders, scalpers, news based intraday traders should continue to crush the market w/ good discipline.

Swing traders: well for myself, no clue. Way to over-extended to go long, yet NOT enough conformation to go short. If we have a few more days like today (relative weakness. ie spy/usd) etc, and push even higher, then on OCT 1st (post window dressing)...I will look to take an another entry swing to the short side. But that's conditional on how it plays out from now till then also.

Weekly momo stocks charts fwiw
- goog
- gs
- fcx

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Defeat the Debt.com


Monday, September 14, 2009

And the bulls go marching on.....+ (GOOG update)

Trying to time this market on a short term swing (overnight) basis is beyond my imagination.
- all you intra-day scalpers, and news based 20 min duration traders, ya should continue to crush it.
That's the only way here to rock it consistantly, cash in and OUT before the end of the day. (or at least that is what I observe from reading numerous traders and observing the trend that ONLY that group is in the high percentage zone)
Hopefully my PCU oct puts (which I do still like alot) will make up for the qqqq sept's (which have rapidly evaporated into thin air)
- the fact that Copper is failing to make new highs while the market did, and the USD made new
lows, is to me a sign that copper is trading very heavily)
Here is an update on GOOG as posted before, still "waiting".....no signal.
- which will most likely be the next trade I do make, when it finally comes.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Copper looks very toppy

My call: PCU will be trading at 23.00 within 4 weeks.
(don't follow me on this trade, do all your own dd X 10, b/c its a nasty market. But I have to go w/ my gut and the charts on this one)
Disclosure: qqqq sep 39 puts @ .31
+ buying pcu oct 25 puts in the AM

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Watch the $TRAN this coming week. (edit)

All Candlesticks compared.
It appears to hold the key here, for the immediate short term.

(IF) we push higher, it will be the likely first to break out.

I think that we are going to pullback to the short term support lines of all these this coming week. However I will watch the $TRAN for a leading breakout short term.

best of luck, enjoy Labor day.......

Disclosure: qqqq sep 39 puts @ .31

edit: new chart, had the ndx on logarithmic and others at linear
(all are now set at linear)

The Major lines in the sand ($NDX)

My last post is just that "speculative", I am not saying the market is going to follow that pattern over the next several months.
(although would not be shocked if it did)

I do strongly believe that the $NDX (NOT the comp, rut, indu, tran, spx) is the clear market leader for many reasons. (2 links below w/ rationale as to why)

- the spx head and shoulders "failed" break down was also a simultaneous clear BUY signal for
the NDX
- the ndx was the ONLY index that made a higher low in March 09, compared to Nov 08
- the ndx is the only index ALREADY back at "pre-lehman" levels here



I am short the NDX (via QQQQ) here into major confluence of resistance, for a short term trade
(target of 1595):
(chart above, as it has the cleanest support/resistance lines compared to other indexes)

- IF the NDX can break 1668.57, the next resistance up is at 1790
- IF the NDX can break 1790, the next lines appears to be not till 1995
- IF the NDX can break 1995, it looks to be destined for 2055.82

And those are the key levels I am watching to see the duration, and magnitude of this rally. The NDX performance as the leading index has proved itself over and over again all the way since from the bottom.

Shall see, I have no CLUE where the market will be in 2,6,12 months. My gut says lower
The only thing I can do, is play the chart, by scalping at key levels, with pre-defined stops, for quick swing trades.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

The bearish "speculative" head n shoulders play-out for 2009-10

...continuation from last post. Cleaner chart.

- Fall from here to 880-920est over Sept to early Oct establishing the neckline on right, as the volume returns to the market and the manipulation takes a vacation (1 of p3)

- bounce to 960est, kick-started first by the "positive gdp of the 3rd qtr, announced in late Oct" and then lastly maintained by the seasonal anemic Dec holiday volume, establishing the complete right shoulder (2 of p3)

- the crash......starting in Jan 2010, and the "hype of the 3rd qtr recovery is now past tense, as well as the holiday anemic volume, collapsing through the main right shoulder
(3 of P3)

Disclosure: QQQQ sept 39 puts @ 0.31

A closer look at the Leader ($NDX) and why the last head n shoulders went wrong.

My Thoughts on why the $NDX is the real leader (link)
Why did that Head n Shoulders fail back in June..????
Besides "too many people were looking at it".....
- The last head n shoulders failed, b/c it was ONLY the spx (well the INDU too)
However, not the NDX (which is the leader) (see large chart)

- The same reason the Nasdaq had given an EWT signal that P1 was over, and that P2 was
underway WELL before the spx had. (which dano called back well before the spx rule
Lesson Learned:
- When noticing a bullish signal, ensure the weakest of index's is also forming it as well
- When noticing a bearish signal, ensure the strongest of index's is also forming it as well
On a side note, It's tempting to speculate here, that in addition to this possibly forming out a short term head and shoulders right now, we may also being forming a larger head and shoulders (with the failed spx mini that occurred in June...being the left shoulder, and right now being the head) That would also fit it the scenario of many EWT's who say P3 is underway. If this is wave 1 of p3, then wave 2 of P3 would be the formation of the right shoulder, with 3 of p3 being the break of the neck line running from June. (hmmmmmm)
At any rate, I am short as of the close Friday, with target being the current neck-line: ie NDX 1595ish (one thing at a time)
Disclosure: QQQQ Sept 39 puts @ .31

Thursday, September 3, 2009

The head n shoulders part 2 marches on....

spare the love (hate) goldbugs, I don't wanna hear it. That's WHY i sold all my DZZ (and EEV) on Monday. (and w/ profits too....for the DZZ portion it was almost even enough to to fill up my gas tank once, after the commission fees). I feel bad for anyone who was short gold after Monday. When things don't feel "right" at all....how does the saying go? "when in doubt, stay out"
Well, It saved by butt this time, by abiding by it. No reason to "fall in love" with a trade if your sentiment decreases while the trade hovers at nuetral.


That is exactly why I went in all cash.

Again, what i would "like" to see, is a pump job up on anemic volume tomorrow from some fabricated jobs numbers. That would be awesome. (if we got that, I would strongly think of buying some puts before the close, actually I know I would, on the market, not gold)
-BLK puts to be specific, is one that I am looking at very closely and if it moves up tomorrow AM, I will be buying puts on it for a short swing. (unlike the intact spy wedge from 666, blk juuuust broke from its own) . I think BLK is as overvalued as they get. However I also thought sbux was overvalued 25% ago, and I still do. So i could be dead wrong. (that's what i get for gaming earnings) But if we get a pumpty pump tommorow, blk puts are getting some of my attention.

Hopefully, after this holiday weekend ahead of us, the SEASONAL volume starts to increase as it typically does for September, thus making it more difficult to manipulate the markets, and the 20 min prior to close "pump jobs", wont be as effective. But again, that's just bearish speculation. The main point is that more volume makes it easier to identify trends, be it in either direction and LESS prone to drastic moves by 1-2 players.

VIX leads, Gold follows

Breakouts: Tue....Wed

SPX: Looks time for a retracement move back up here is due to correct some of the down move from this week
VIX: has still plenty of room to digest its breakout, yet still be
above the wedge line.
Gold: same story as the VIX, just 1 day behind it on the pattern, appears off to the races.
USD: Coinflip, lines in the sand are clear and identified as well as narrowing.
Disclosure: 100% cash