Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Window Dressing

could be whats holding the market up here ??
..........well that and the ever crumbling USD!

- preface what I am saying by first making it aware that I am NOT watching tape every 10 minutes of the day intraday currently.
Nor am I trading it currently. Just doing market watching at the end of each day, looking at the longer term trends.

See all the top callers are lining up to get sliced one by one, yet still.

- remember Doug Kass, the one that got "all the fame" for calling the bottom to a T.
,well he has been calling for large down moves and yes a "top" since about spx 900!!!!
That is no knock on Kass. The point is simply........

Ya know how it goes: The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.

Take home message: calling and trying to TRADE tops and bottoms is a fools game.
-better to miss the "turn" yet get all the meat and potatoes, than to pass it up, by "trying" to be cute and catch it. etc. I myself don't always abide by all my own rules 100% of the time. But that doesn't mean it's the "right" thing to do.

This current "short dollar / Long commodities" is about the most lopsided trade we might have seen here, since ohhhhh "short the financials right after LEH". Dunno, but I have to agree w/ Waxie, that come the very start of OCT we are likely to see a monster short squeeze in the dollar, come POST window dressing.

Today, USD was down 1%, yet market was only up .5%.
That is not bullish/healthy. I mean the correlation was only 1:2, that's not good.
That means the buy h hold american investor LOST wealth today being long. *yes lost*

That being said, it sure does NOT mean its time to short the market yet however.
Heck I have NO CLUE....

Daytraders, gap-faders, scalpers, news based intraday traders should continue to crush the market w/ good discipline.

Swing traders: well for myself, no clue. Way to over-extended to go long, yet NOT enough conformation to go short. If we have a few more days like today (relative weakness. ie spy/usd) etc, and push even higher, then on OCT 1st (post window dressing)...I will look to take an another entry swing to the short side. But that's conditional on how it plays out from now till then also.

Weekly momo stocks charts fwiw
- goog
- gs
- fcx
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