Saturday, September 5, 2009

A closer look at the Leader ($NDX) and why the last head n shoulders went wrong.














My Thoughts on why the $NDX is the real leader (link)
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Why did that Head n Shoulders fail back in June..????
Besides "too many people were looking at it".....
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- The last head n shoulders failed, b/c it was ONLY the spx (well the INDU too)
However, not the NDX (which is the leader) (see large chart)

- The same reason the Nasdaq had given an EWT signal that P1 was over, and that P2 was
underway WELL before the spx had. (which dano called back well before the spx rule
violation)
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Lesson Learned:
- When noticing a bullish signal, ensure the weakest of index's is also forming it as well
- When noticing a bearish signal, ensure the strongest of index's is also forming it as well
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On a side note, It's tempting to speculate here, that in addition to this possibly forming out a short term head and shoulders right now, we may also being forming a larger head and shoulders (with the failed spx mini that occurred in June...being the left shoulder, and right now being the head) That would also fit it the scenario of many EWT's who say P3 is underway. If this is wave 1 of p3, then wave 2 of P3 would be the formation of the right shoulder, with 3 of p3 being the break of the neck line running from June. (hmmmmmm)
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At any rate, I am short as of the close Friday, with target being the current neck-line: ie NDX 1595ish (one thing at a time)
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Disclosure: QQQQ Sept 39 puts @ .31
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