GOOG (patience)...............

http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/08/goog-i-will-be-waiting-for-you-when.html

not yet....................................................
but its getting very close, so I mention the set up again, which is......

Waiting for the weekly rsi / macd trend breakdown for short signal.

Update from my original post (above)





disclosure: long exm

Watch that Dollar (weekly)

Remember a weekly chart ALWAYS trumps a daily.

Friday's usd move was a monster
- the daily chart looks like a breakout
- however the weekly is right at major resistance now

I would like to see it pull back and consolidate, to then look to go short names like FCX
(which trade almost totally inverse to the dollar)

I still believe that in Dec the market will "float" higher due to the anemic volume.
stocks like goog, amzn, aapl with less correlation to the dollar to lead the way. Even though the dollar was strong Friday, the market however was up. With the NASDAQ leading the way. (makes sense, again as it is the lowest USD correlation, yet commodity stocks, such as FCX were hammered)

Bottom line: I am watching the USD weekly chart to break out of its rsi channel before a trend change to be confirmed.

- also, with the low holiday volume, I would not be surprised to see stocks stay afloat and strong even WITH a confirmed USD reversal.

- If so, will wait to after the USD weekly breakout AND after Jan 1st to short this casino.

Disclosure: 100% cash

Follow the Leader, wait who is the leader?

............your guess is as good as mine which that is......

sometimes I do have a pretty good track on who is running in front.

http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/10/index-comparing-watch-dow-ndxtran-have.html

So the dow continues to have the lead torch, till it doesn't. However, the amount of time between tops and the expanding differance in the tops has grown fairly larger (ie look at the RUT!). So if i was to lean bullish, i would lean more on the RUT if i did. The divergance is pretty large now, and its chart pattern is actually set up much better than lets say the TRAN (which is in pure wait and see mode for breakout or triple top)

...but that's IF i was trading it long, which im not.

but here now, it looks dark as mud
market just looks undecisive here.....short term.

I still favor the bulls until the 2009 clock is ticking, per my below posts rationale...

.....not trading w/ em though....

random: Windows 7 is a step up and them some from the that vista

Cant stop the dollar drop

see below chart, for a technical STRONG signal of something to look for when a bottom and reversal are CONFIRMED. Until that line gets broke, there are sharks in the water.

maybe it reverses tomorrow? (i have not a clue, however i doubt it)
- which is why I will just sit and wait for it reverse and confirm prior.

Take a look at the USD performance last DEC, they tanked it hard. Worst month for the USD for the year in 2008. (no wonder dec 08 was mildly bullish huh?)

Too scary and high in the clouds to go long here.
No reason to short the market going into the holidays, the chances are NOT favorable.
- besides all the window, eoy theories...a known fact is that Holidays=anemic volume
- another known fact is anemic volume = bullish (in case you haven't noticed the past 10 months)

Ideally, to me the best swing trade plan/scenario is float and grind higher all the way up into years end, then buy vix calls on the last day of the year. The anemic volume can bring the vix lower than it intends to be. Perhaps im bias, because last year the vix calls when 400% in a week to start the new year.

I don't see the market falling too much until 2010 get's here, imo. Mainly due to the closer we get to 2010, and the holidays the lower the volume......

EDIT (add): here is a little historical data on December
Is is sell in May and go away.....or Buy in October and get yourself sober?

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/bespoke/2009/11/whats-in-store-for-december.html

The continuing watch for the USD intermediate to major bottom/reversal signal.

The blue line annotated to be broken/taken out, is the only ticket I see.