Tuesday, January 5, 2010

$USD updates

This short pullback looks very close to done here........and the longer term trend looks to resume back upwards for the next 6-12 months.

Here is a link to my past 4 posts on the $USD


...see the Weekly chart for 6-12 month TIME (not price) target of $USD up cycle. Yes, I think the $USD, will RISE for the next 6-12 months, or untill it changes it's current channell on the weekly chart.

Kenny beat me to posting the bull flag its forming here on the daily, so here it is:


Monday, January 4, 2010

Looking at the IYR

One day into the first 2010 week, and although so far wrong on the broad market 1/5 into the week, have been on the right side of the trade. (sector) SRS was another gimme trade on its gapdown...see comments on link for rationale. 

Notes on IYR charts, fwiw

Disclosure: Long SRS @7.31
 (target IYR 44.20-take majority profits, stops moved to break even)

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Issue Advance : Volume Advance

woah, put your eye protection on. This one is wound up

Climbing the wall: GOOG

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Preparing for the Tax avoidance Trade (ie the early Jan sell off)

There is no santa rally
There is no extra juice on the "end of year window dressing"

You want to know why the SPY has been up 27 of the past 29 Decembers in which the spy was up for that given year???  TAXES.  B/C people prefer to avoid them for 12 months and roll them over whenever possible. (they dont sell in Dec, unless they HAVE TO....its human nature to avoid giving money away till when you have too, especially if there is no interest on it).  Also pull up the chart and see how many of those 27 years we had a bullish START to Jan (its less than half, with an even stronger trend in the last few years, why??? my theory again, more people trade their own ports now than ever before. And i expect in its alot more than even last year, right Bernie)

I am ready..........for the New Year correction...I expect the first 1-2 weeks of Jan to be bearish.

finger on some SRS 7 calls......(plan to purchase at the very END of this trading week)

The fact is many more people trade their own account now, than they ever did before.
(and rightfully so Bernie...)

If Joe 6 pack is up big in 2009, (which he is) do you think he really wants to pay taxes on all of it right now?
.......OR............do you think he prefers to DELAY that nuissance by 12 months by simply waiting till AFTER the new years to sell a few shares.   I strongly guess the later.