Sunday, May 31, 2009

Hedge Idea of the Week, June 1-5

CASH, till market tips it's hand.

I do continue to like WFMI and ISIL here as short plays.
Also watching MAR and SPG as well short, although they have not "shown" it just yet.

Some longs I am watching: CY, HERO, WFT.

The miners looks about as parabolic as can be right now technically. (AEM, SLW). These are high beta, and when the metal and the market are both going in the same direction (which has been up), these things fly. The very same goes on the way down too. They look very over-extended here to the upside. That does not mean they can not go higher, b/c they probably can. They are like 2X etf's for gold and silver w/o the decay factor. Nothing technically about them says short right now. Timing is everything. Same reason I called to pull out of AEM at 54, after entering at 53. Now its 61!

I will call em when I see em, and since they both hit High of 2009 on Friday, now is not the time to short, nor chase long. I do believe they will both roll over, very hard, when? (no clue) I'll wait til a double top w/ neg divergance to tip it's hand.

Fade the opening gaps and use the 30 min rule. (link)

Swinging for singles, no doubles I see worth the risk/reward currently.
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