Monday, May 4, 2009

Turnaround Tue?

I'd look for a consolidation day tomorrow. Flat to slightly down, but i don't think we tank. Maybe give up 20-30% of today's gains though.

Watch what sector is weak, i think it's going to tip off more than just tomorrow, of where money is coming out of sooner than later.

I'm not saying the market is "manipulated", but the bulls were strategically making it look as strong as possible. I mean as it looked like it was fading with an hour left, what one stock out left feild came charging up on NO news at all. Yep..GS. The one that frustrates the bears the most, then SPG hits high of day? spg is a reit! Lots of panic end of day short covering, looks like. But very very well "evoked" by the bulls.

It's all up to Bernake. And i don't know who is buying at these levels, but "some" less seasoned shorts have to be scared to death after today. Which is why also the bulls wont likely push too hard for tomorrow.
Some stocks to watch for weakness tomorrow, fwiw
- gme
- aem (if gold is flat or down)
- cf
- all
- ebay
- yhoo
- ma
- ibm
- goog
- spg (yea it participated today, but that was a squeeze to me, if ya have any doubt, just look at the candles this thing makes day in day out, shorting it on odd days and buying it on even days looks like it's made a few traders millions)

- the BIG CAP techs, yep. Look at the index's for today, the $NDX was the weakest one of all.
(that is very very rare)

I got the list mainly from the stocks that seemed to "not participate" to much it was not un-noticed.

The Nasdaq comp was even stonger than the Nasdaq 100. The $NDX has actually been MUCH stronger than even the Nasdaq comp over the longer term. Look at the charts, it made higher LOW in march 09, as compared to Nov 08, and it's actually over it's daily 200sma.
The Reason I mention this, is that today was ALOT of short covering and pumping of the beaten downs. That does not mean the market is going to fall off a cliff tommorow, but ya get an idea where the chips are being placed, that's all.

Oh yea, there we go, Cramer is pumping TECH big time here....hehehhe
that's gonna be the weakest tommorow, thanks for the conformation buddy!

"teck-a-leck"? oh my.....


  1. Doc
    you are on a roll. I read your post on SKF that P2 is 40 days or less. Loved it.
    Please post here are well.
    I am in faz and stuck.
    Good luck to all those who are rational currently (shorts)

  2. 40 days or less?

    i didn't say that.....


  3. Im glad I got out of my shorts on friday. I wouldve been killed today.
    I went from a leveraged position in TWM to completely flat in a span on a few hours market time.

    Something was fishy. While I think the seasonal May effect is gonna kick in w some selling, I dont think we have a top now. Maybe v soon.

    Im also looking for a 1/3 retrace, light volume day tomorrow and another gap up on weds (hopefully a small doji). At that pt I will prob looking at intermediate term short on sell the news.

    But I will also keep in mind a counter scenario where the news is bought and we blast up higher. Bc I think everyone and their dog is thinking of sell the news.

  4. hey erik,

    first off your recent calls on drys, jrcc and fslr were money! but anyway you are calling for a consilidation tuesday, do you think tomarrow will be a start of a real correction or is it still a buy the dip for a push upward? and anymore thoughts on FEED?

  5. rude,

    I probably should EDIT my post, but i have it set so i can't. The reason i say that, is i dont KNOW nor do i really "CARE" what the spx does tommorow.

    Im adapting as best i can, and i am aware that i am NOT a 100% nuetral trader, i have a "bearish" mental bias. I do. I can block it out most of the time, but its there a lil bit. And when i try to remind myself that it's best to be neutral, i talk myself out of it somewhat b/c i just say "yea...but the market is going lower long term, so why not be leaned that way" lol

    I don't know. No clue. No idea.

    I think the stocks that kinda "hid" out today are great shorts tommorow.

    I dont want to call a top b/c it impedes trading, and if it's broken, then it's like a self capilation.

    numbers to watch "might be" 943/944 spx, i know that seems way up there, and i would have my jaw dropped too, but its the 2009 high and the 2002 bear market low, so there's confluence.

    id wait for a nice pull back to add to or re-enter any longs here

    im leaning short tommorow..

    if feed gets to 3.98 or so and finds support there, that would be very nice (resting back ontop of the breakout area now as support)

    im still in half of it, from that price, trailing as i go...

    feed is a pretty smooth chart 60 min, heck everyone was playing the same b/o i bet today..

    maybe it gets frigging 8.70, when it's done with its romp....

    dont chase it tho

    just my ramblings, opinions

  6. Erik,

    thanks for the explanation. and by the way, i love the saturday or sunday nite plays of the coming week. in a way you put yourself out on a limb, but at the same time, it is interesting to see what another investor is thinking. your hit miss ratio has been pretty impressive. your DRYS call was fantastic. no one is right 100% of the time, whether you are right or wrong, your opinion is very credible. thank you.

  7. Thank you for the kind words

    i try post the ideas of the week on THURS night, the week before (if allows, if there is big new on friday or the weekend, I will hold off)

  8. Hi, Erik, how you do with drys? I have 4k of drys at $4 and jumped in 8,000 shares of EGLE yesterday at low $8. I have a strong feeling that this one is going much higher into its earning and after just like drys. I did not sell drys after its earning and it has gone much higher.

  9. Erik, airlines are going higher. Swine flu will get under complete control and the market will forget and move on. Airlines will jump on the news when the Swine flu is all over that I believe is around the corner. At least this is my humble opinion. Hope you are with me, too on this one.

  10. i sold today at 5.00 fwiw

    that was my target