Friday, May 22, 2009

Using the two falling knives: VIX and $USD

Stick a fork, Falling knife (utensil analogy week huh?)

VIX bottoms = Market tops
USD tops = Market bottoms

You can see VIX tops and USD bottoms do NOT have nearly as strong as a market correlation.

Q: Did the vix swing bottom at 26.57?
A: Depends what you mean by swing time frame. I do think the vix is going to 36 as it's next stop. (the major resistance line) Look for an RSI wedge b/o conformation first here, if we get that mon/tue, then you can book the vix at 36, it has a FREE RIDE there.

Trading plan: stay leaning bearish short term, ESPECIALLY shorting the gap ups.....till the vix gets to 36. (then............go to neutral)

I am not as confident 875 spx will hold & bounce this next time as I was on the last.
I am not saying we "must" cut through it like butter (although we might).
I am just not "expecting" a bounce/rally off of it, like I had warned/called on it's last touch.

Enjoy the Memorial day weekend.......

I will be posting some play ideas later on this weekend, as I narrow down my lists.
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