Monday, May 4, 2009

Rock - n - Roll BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a start to the week......Good-googely-Moogely!!!

How ya like that LCC long call on thurs night.....we have lift-off!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-19% in 2 days

13% difference in LCC vrs SPG on friday, and a 6% difference today, wowsers.

(ok ok, so 19% profit via a 50/50 hedge in 2 days.....but maybe it shoulda been better?, maybe i coulda found a better short? Like one that goes DOWN even on a market up day like today...ya can never be satisfied, always have to try to do better, right?)


GME, uh peeked it's little head over 30 today, that was the ENTRY short trigger. And did ya see it after that? I mean it looks like it's trading on life support......fading into the red as the market goes bonkers to the up-side, oh the agony. Take that stock outside and shoot it please. Look for 26 very quickly on it. (no earnings up coming on that one, it's already out of the way, that's one of the reasons why I called it :o)

FEED: ca-BOOM! (ok ok, fair enough, yea yea i didn't "call it" perse, but if you were watching the same price and rsi wedge's that I posted last nite, ya got it at 3.98 b/o, some one was, b/c i saw the volume go bazerk and liftoff right at b/o point)

I think LCC get's to 5.00, as that is where it was "before" the swine flu...but it should be trailed here very very tightly, no reason to give up any gains when up 19%

GME: stick a fork in it, till it get's 26, this one is pretty.

FEED: move stops to entry, don't give up any gains, this is a volatile one, be safe, dont't chase.

SPG: tricky one, b/c it got squeezed hard today, but this thing moves down and up in 8-10% candles almost every day. (if spg is going up, lcc and feed will likely be MORE...that's how i look at it) I still like it short alot, for the rest of the entire week. Courtesy of the mr. market, it's back to where it was 1 trading day ago, when they cut their dividend.


They are front-running the financials here and putting every ounce possible they can of "fear" into the financial shorts. Heck, let em...i hope they pump gs to 150, b/c after the stress tests are over, i think it's going to be one the best swing short entries for the financials we have seen in a long long time. So i "hope" they pump em up even more, i really do. I will look fade the over-exaggeration after the "event" has passed. No reason fighting the bs (i mean rally).

I would much rather fade an over-reaction to an event that has occurred already, than try to guess what a future reaction will be. Opportunities present. I want to short gs, oh i do, but i want to make money more.

And this is why (jmo) I do not think we are going to have this "pullback"...then "free ride" to spx 1000, b/c every bobble-head is talking about it. The EWT traders i follow say this should be close to the top of A-up...then we have B-down, then C-up. However some also way "perhaps" P2 might be over.

I think i mentioned this like 4 posts ago in "calling tops and bottoms and such" and heck i threw my name in the hat too w/ an April 2nd top call based on m2m ruling. (wrong!) The next level i see is 943. (the high of 2009, as well as the LOW of 2002). Now i have "NO CLUE" if we get there, I have no idea what the "top" will be on the spx. Nor much of an interest, i think when thing's turn or flatten it's going to be fairly easy to see.

Remember that earnings season is a major major market mover, and we had such a horrific 4th qtr last year that most ananylsts put their estimates so low, b/c they thought the "sky was falling" still from last qtr. Notice how most stocks are blowing away estimates, yet you hear "revenues decline, profits drop, but they make sure they pump that "BEAT Estimates" part loud and clear!.

After earnings season is over, the stress tests are also over. The only thing we have is our monthly economic data, and what everyone seems to forget, the bad stories. Not trying to be a perma-bear or a fear monger here. But most "scandals and collapses and frauds" seems to come out when there is not earnings or economic data. Why? ---> they have to put something on the news. And for just my "hunch" I don't think it's going to be saturated with Goldman Sachs doing charity marathons for cancer and telethons for needy children. But hey, maybe I am gullible?

Don't know what market is doing tomorrow. But I do feel this is setting up to be a MONSTER shorting entry on the financials, so pump em up, keep going! Give em all A+'s on the stress tests! lol
But I do know (pretty well) what looks like it trading like it's on a rocket ship, (jrcc, lcc, feed) and what looks like it looks like it got punched in the face. (gme, etc)

As far as the broad market goes, i think there is a better chance that we go even HIGHER on this rally, than we do "pullback", then blast off to spx 1000. I say that b/c it seems that "everyone" is looking for the pull back then "easy money" to spx 1000. There is no "easy money" in the market. And the saying is true....investors are MORE afraid of "missing a rally" than of actually "losing money itself". Stupid, yes very. But that's the common investors mentality.

Im not calling spx 943. But i think there is a "better" chance we go higher on this push, than we do "8% pullback, then blast off". Everyone on TV says that, and it's too crowded an idea, which makes me think it's very UN-likely. And it's just a pump to try and get more money to pour in the market when it starts to sell off. Plus most importantly, that is the kinda move characteristic of a "bull-market" everyone saying that, is "hoping" we are in a bull market.

Remember the largest rallies and largest up days are in BEAR markets.

I'm not saying the spx goes to 943, heck i trade 50/50 with longs and shorts ever since April 2nd, when i found out "I didn't know the top".
To me, anyone pushing it all long is insane at this level.
To me, anyone pushing it all short is also insane w/ this sentiment.
But there is money to be made still here. Fade the news that has already been dealt.
There is a trade on TM setting up here very nicely, ill post it w/ charts and my thoughts a little later on. ('s not bullish)


  1. Good analysis but you forgot to mention that today's gains were in the most oversold stocks - like casinos, airlines (ok - you did talk about those), cruiselines, and hotel stocks. The last 3 are indicators of the extreme media hype that went along w/the pig flu.

    The only thing that hasn't recovered are pig prices but what do you expect when the govt orders farmers to shoot and burn their pigs?

  2. DBA looked weak today. It also broke out of a wedge from friday tho, so it's still above that.

    I guess im bias w/ gold and dba, since i own them each short and long respectively.

    I dont mean bias on opinion, b/c my opinion is they will interest on the chart and correct to one another, as they are driven by the same motor, which is a nuetral opinion.

    I'm not into, nor good at day to day trading them. They are a check it every week kinda thing to me.

    I do think gold is holding up here due to the "anxiety of the stress tests" like perhaps we might bail more banks out, just as a safety hedge trade here. and it's setting up for a nice short here before the end of the week for a longer term trade.

  3. DBA is weak on soybean longs taking profit. There is a nice hedge trade being set up: