Friday, July 31, 2009

Short term sentiment change

To Bearish.

I see a move down next week.
Here are 5 things to chew on.
I almost now wish I shorted the close more aggressively than I did.
(my apologies for all the url links, instead of posting all images. Some are older observations)

1) SPX and VIX both up on Friday: 9 of the past 12, resulted in a down day for the next day.
Courtesy of Cobra's Market View (link on right)

2) Friday's end of the day spike in VIX makes it even more interesting.
(the last time i recall one bigger than Friday's, was 2 Jan 09. Which was a prelude to a large
intermediate move down) (Friday)
(Jan 2nd, 2009)

3) SPX and VIX both up for the week
(although one might "assume" that since on daily basis equates to 75% down probability, this would be automatically "mega-bearish". However, the past 2 times this happened were actually large intermediate direction changing points, Mid Sep 08 and Mid Mar 09 were the past two. This one is arguable, as it has come before a crash as well as before a large rally. Also the last candle stick structure looks almost identical to the March week, there can be a bullish argument for this. For probability sake, I think it's best to say that "for now" we can call this one UNDETERMINED as of yet. So I wont say this points bearish, however since its a very rare occurrence and has happened right at the crash and the rally "start"... I wanted to mention it here.)$VIX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68264773822&listNum=12&a=174352066

4) USD / SPY decoupling
The dollar was absolutely hammered Friday, yet the market was barely up.
The last time I remember seeing a divergence that strong was 19 March.
(on 20 March, the spy fell over 2%)

5) Weekly dogi at key long term resistance on the Leading index ($NDX)$NDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25925276563&a=172339768&listNum=12&listNum=12

Broad Market Pullback "target": 1525 $NDX (trendline)$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17589378026&a=171083389&listNum=12

Disclosure: Long DZZ (1 swing) & Short MAR, AEM... Long SRS, QID (4 short terms)

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