Monday, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney rocks the House!

Looks pretty much close enough for me, so thank you Meredith Whitney
(Close as in those ...... Index Numbers to Watch, that I posted this weekend)

I think SHORT term, that this right here looks pretty decent spot to "dip" into some shorts
We could go a tiny bit higher perhaps, so maybe I am a little bit early, but I do like the entry.
I just don't feel in my gut its one to go totally BONKERS with though.

I am looking for around 890spx Index wise to exit my short plays this week
(very conservative play, nothing big here)

And I am only playing these 3 till the end of this week, b/c I know they are not reporting till at earliest next week.

(I started to scale into shorts right at the close, SBUX: 1.97, 1.971, MAR: 1.9, TIN: 1.95, 1.96)

Those are my stockcharts charts numbers of them. (link)

(fwiw....I will mention what I "think" are some great stocks to look to short, cover and re-short over and over again for the summer time on the next post, those are 3 of them) For now I have to go. (super busy, I missed the whole Meredith Whitney trade, as I was not around for the AM, it sure looked like an FAS delight for the day.

I had twittered (is that a word?) that I had a very strong hunch that she would send the financials higher I would buy in front of her for the day. Oh well...I'll take the next likely direction. which is back down I think. But again, this is not one I feel like going hard and heavy with, but I do like the 3 plays I have here short for the next couple days.

For the SHORT TERM outlook, watch the SPX index. I "think" it holds the key here actually. If you re-look at those 60 mins charts I posted this weekend of the Index numbers to watch, EVERY index actually closed below the backtest line.
(except.......the $SPX and the $XII, they actually closed right back ABOVE IT).

If the SPX leads tomorrow and is the STRONGEST index, technically that "might" suggest we digest this move today and do not go lower immediately. However, the spx has to hold onto 900 and NOT dip under for that rationale to be valid, so it has practically no room to breath at all. But giving today's move the benefit of the doubt, that is the one outlier index that actually got back INTO it's old channel, by 1pt. So if the spx is lets say up a little bit, and the others are down tomorrow, I would interpret that as LESS of a bearish signal. But I am also I think stretching here, as I am trying to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt on purpose to try and be safe about trading to the short side, that's all.

Just something to consider, but even today the spx max pain fell from 91 to 90. (why?) B/C the rally induced chasers (ie call buyers) and once more people buy more calls, THOSE are also calls that the writers do not want to PAY out. (ie that lowers max pain). GS still could not break 150? come on Meridith? I dunno. But short term I do like this overall as a SHORT entry, as I am net short here since the close. Sorry, but I don't have time to post all my charts on here, but the 60 min index charts that I talked about this weekend and those numbers.

Those index charts are 0.2.0 to 0.2.6 (on my stockcharts list)

Just go to the upper right and click on Chartbook, which makes them much easier/faster to search)

*Rambling thoughts, for 2 "conditional" things I am watching*
-If tomorrow 20 minutes before the close, GS does NOT look like it's going to close over 150..I will likely be buying some AUG puts on it

-If on FRIDAY goog has a neutral or slightly negative initial reaction to it's earnings, I will be buying quite a few of the AUG slightly OTM puts on it. I just do NOT want to "game the ER", nor do I want to buy any options before it, as they are being overpriced here with the I.V, as all the straddle buying manaics are driving them up too expensive before the ER. However since Friday is options expo, if the reaction to GOOG does happen to be negative, then I do have a strong hunch that they will do their best to "hold it up and cushion it" its expiration day. (remember RIMM the AH reversal prop last month?) The beneficial thing then is for an option buyer is that since the ER is now over, the IV should shrivel up alot, especially if the reaction is a minimal one. So I would love to see goog trade in a very tight controlled range on Friday. Remember, goog does have a strong history of doing that on expiration day too. So that particular set up, would be a good one to me, if of course it even comes like that.
blog comments powered by Disqus