Thursday, July 2, 2009

Good Market

How was that Bounce, window dressing Jun 23 call?
Go neutral (vix is too low relative to spy) Jun 25 call?
Go short, reverse window dressing June 30 call?

Ok, enuf chest pumping, all my prior posts are listed on here. Lemme stop...

(finally confident enough again to start trading full size lots over the past 2 weeks, as the market had been admittedly VERY VERY tricky (IE difficult to find high probability trades) to me since AFTER april 2nd (the M2M ruling), with the one exception trend of the several April/May pre-earning 2-3 day long run up plays on the short heavies throughout the 2nd half of the past earnings season, thank goodness for those)

I think that if we pay attention to the TAPE here for earnings we can catch some nice trends. Last qtr was easy, since 80% of stocks were going UP off earnings, you just go long the most shorted ones 3 days before, then sell 1 hr before, rinse and repeat on to the next one.

I feel very strongly that trade will NOT work this season.
But another one will, we just gotta find it and watch the tape to recognize it....

****I do this part-time, I have school/job (one in the same), which occupies a good 60hrs a week, I am NOT a full time-primary income trader, I am just a part time small fry looking to learn the market well enough to take it full time without any apprehension) I still have TONS to learn on scalping, futures trading, advanced options trades to where I am even CLOSE to taking it to the primary level.*****

Will post a detailed opinion of the next week ahead lil later this weekend. (I need to do my dd and charting)

My cliffnotes opinion is:

I think we still have MORE downside on the very short term, and the cessation of it will be ONLY accomplished most likely by a bank or broker PRE-announcing good earnings. (so I would not be short the banks/brokers heavy overnight, in case that happens as it would likely be before pre-market hrs most likely again, can never be too safe ya know). Also when stocks DO SELL OFF, it's likely that they also stop selling about 5 days or so before earnings. (as everyone gets nervous and stands still, both the bears and bulls). However before that "might" come, and I am not sure it will, but I respect the potential it has, I think we are going LOWER next week, and even though summer volume is anemic...NEXT week will be higher volume than this week. (historically it is almost every week AFTER a holiday week). And since Oct 2007, 95% of the time we INCREASE in volume the next week we move LOWER. So hence, i remain bearish short term even after todays move down. After next week, I will likely move back to neutral, as we will be too close to earnings to want to lean either way. (let the earnings trends tip their hand first, remember last qtr, the earnings run up trend before the report (3 days-ish) was crushing it.

jmo, fwiw.

That is my view of the tape/momentum. I still need to look at all the charts and go through them a time over. (weekly/daily, etc)

Have a great 4th of July weekend!
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