Saturday, July 11, 2009

Index Numbers to Watch for next week.

Unlike last week's numbers and projections---------------->
(my apoligiies for overshooting the $RUT target by 3.54 ;-)

I do NOT have a strong directional bias going INTO the week. As we have some heavy hitters ER reports to watch and digest first. My gut tells me that the "cult" stocks that people expect will do very well (ie GS), are at a disadvantage intermediate term here. Just as everyone was "bracing" for the AA disaster and the stock sold off huge before the report, then look what happened.

The higher probability is almost always that any excessive hope OR fear going into a specific event is likely to produce much greater movements than the actual event itself.
(IE: Buy the hype, sell the news ---OR--- short the fear, cover the event)
If gs blows out, and still can NOT break 150, I think its a short with that scenario set up.
(agree w/ charts and coffee)

These below are just numbers that I think would be present a nice risk/reward entry SHORT (w/ stops). I am not that excited to play these long into these potential targets. I am more looking at them as ENTRY levels that I would like to see to re-enter short. We might crash to start the WEEK, heck I have not a clue. (maybe we rally and BLAST through these levels!!!--i think that is of pretty LOW probability, but we shall see)

I am NOT leaning any direction to go into the start of this coming week.
I just think IF we do get a bounce to start the week, these are levels to watch short term.

Here are the numbers, fwiw:

RUT: 500
SPX: 895
COMP: 1800
NDX: 1440

Remember: The Weekly charts always trumps the Daily chart, the Daily chart always trumps the 60 min chart.

However they way I am reading them now, the weekly and the daily both look fairly neutral to me, just my opinion. (unlike last week, when I stated how the Russell weekly looked VERY bearish!)

*****Will try to rememeber to post these every weekend******

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