Friday, April 3, 2009

VIX signals "do or die" for BEAR Market rally vs REAL Bull Trend

I had thought today would be a likely down day....end of week profit taking. (that was incorrect)

Yesterday's high (april 2nd top) was not taken out today, so to say today was "follow through" is not correct. It was an inside out candle day, as the highs were not taken out.

I have posted twice before in regards to the vix charts, this is the same theme. I do not use the vix to predict market movements. (some do, and very well).

I look at and use the vix for the clue to being able to DIFFERENTIATE between a bear market rally, that is headed back lower.....VRS.....a real intermediate term or even longer CHANGE of market sentiment shift, as that is an extremly valuable tool the vix can give us.

What The vix is telling me, from the past support's most likely going to go UP here big time. (market down), as it is now at the MAJOR support levels on the daily AND weekly chart at the same time. Established support and resistance must always be respected.

With due respect to the chart, the vix is also at "do or die time" here. As this is a huge support level.
"IF, IF IF" the vix breaks below this key support and closes the day at 39.00 (or less), to me how i use the vix and trade...that is a "COVER ALL SHORTS" swing signal.

imo, i would also NOT consider that 36ish level as a support, b/c recall this was on that extremely low volume rally during x-mas. (looking at 36 as the main support, instead of the 39 not respecting the t/a and "looking to be bearish" to me.

The more touches = the stronger the trend, so its clear that 39 is the key level that needs to hold for the bears.

I think the market goes MUCH lower from here over the next 2-3 weeks, and April 2nd high of day was a very very likely "top", and the next stop is the purple rsi main support, that's is the most likely to me. (see last post)
However the vix chart is not to be ignored here, it can't be, and the fact its hoving a hair above KEY support, must be watched closely.


  1. I agree...I think we go lower from here...despite the best efforts of the bulls.


    BAC and C to be nationalized this month. Any other predictions of banks to fall ?

  3. Right on brotha. You saved me from having to blog the same thing.

  4. Hi Erik,

    Although I have been visiting your site on a regular basis for a while, finally, today, I remembered to leave my "paw" prints.

    Keep up the good work!


  5. Closed at 39.7.

    Not exactly a definitive confirmation, but I'll take it... With reservation (I ain't goin' *all* in short on this...)

  6. Whats your say on SRS which took a big beating Friday ?