Tuesday, April 21, 2009

SQNM....stinking it up so far.

After an over 25% profit on last week's hedge trade idea, perhaps it was due?

terrible terrible "idea" on SQNM, so far, I called.
Whew, what a stinker that's been so far this week.

I still love the trade, but I shoulda/coulda/woulda called a better long side play than this one, so far.

Why do i still like it (besides the t/a set up I "thought" it had provided on friday)
to put on your list to watch later, if ya choose too. (even tho the entry was obviously way off)

- the stock is 27% short float, that's a hell of a lot after a broad market rally like this.

- with out going into lengthy fundamentals, they have a blood-test of 99% accuracy to test for
down syndrome and other fetal chromosomal abnormalites (the best we have currently is amniocentesis, which also carries small miscarriage risk...ie a big ass needle in mommies belly, which is only 95% accurate) I have been following this one for almost a year now, so i know it pretty well and how it trades (sometimes...) I won't give an "idea/opinion" of a trade, unless i have been following it for at least 3-6 months.

It's not a drug, it's a test. (ie likely no s/e news to send it -95% overnite)

- anyhow the longs of this stock are weak-hands, even though it's 95% owned by institutions, but the shorts really love this play, why??? when there are insolvent banks w/ less of a short %? who knows, but it get's the short float up high very fast, every time.

At any rate, fwiw, when this thing squeezes it is a monster, because of the short float % as well as their entire float is basically taken up already, hence the squeeze is even more powerful than normal. The best times I have seen to play it is when there is a conferance call or something up-coming. B/C shorts get nervous and cover going into them. (a conferance call for a bio-tech, is like X2 compared to earnings for a regular market bullish stock)

With current deflation, and financial yo-yo from the puppet masters in Washington, i prefer to stay away from longs related to either of those factors. (deflation, finacials)

you can likely stick a fork in the solars here...they are toast for the next several weeks.


  1. Erik, have you been watching and playing builder stocks such as kbh, kim, slg and so on. I have been playing KIM since high $8 a few times back and forth. Sold today near $12, but not sure if there is any more steam ahead. But watching the trend and the market recovery action, it looks like some of the builder stocks will have more opportunities to chuck ahead comparing its old high. What is your next jewel on your list if you care to share please? By the way, great pick on AMGN if you held until today to sell. I sold too fast right before its earning.

  2. the only way i'm playing longs here is
    a) they report withing 3-5 trading days
    b) they have 10% or more shorts
    c) the charts look good

    and i have to have A+B+C all 3 of em..

    next jewel? i dunno...

    the ideas i like most for next week i posted up here, on thurs.(fslr, jrcc, ma, bcsi, etc etc etc etc..those are the ones i like, but i like the SHORTS more than the LONGS, there too.

  3. for Jim Rogers vidos and interviews i like to go to this blog daily :

  4. Thoughts on SQNM after today's terrible news?