For the disclosure/record, goog was my fav short during 2008, and it did VERY well for me, very well.
Yet the 1 time i shorted it in 2009, i was stopped out (ie lost money).
Reason i mention that part, is to disclosure that I do feel its extremely overvalued, and the multiple is that of a GROWTH stock in a bull market. (valuations are never a reason to make short term trades anyway, but they do admittedly make me LOOK into charting a stock, for entries to get short or long, depending on its relative valuation to the market, etc)
I'll say one thing I know for sure, there are some stocks that I call "cult" stocks, you know what i'm referring too, the ones EVERYONE "falls in love with" goog, rimm, aapl, even gs, pot even".
The same ones that Joe Bob Smith "invested" a lil in back a few YEARS back, so well ya can't tell Joe Bob his stock is over-valued, b/c well Joe Bob purchased at IPO levels...so he make one heck of a trade, there's no debating that (.....for now).
Point to that, is that "cult" stocks...when they rally...THEY FRIGGING RALLY, and when they crack, BOY do they friggin crack. Ya do remember RIMM was 140, then they "missed" in sept 08, and nosedived to like 40. (no wonder it was Cramer's "stock of the month for Aug"....red alert, red alert)
BTW GOOG does not give it's own guidance, fyi. One of the rare companies that just lets the analysts pick that, they says its "irrelevant" to the company, etc.
At any rate, I just wanted to disclose that i do have a "bearish opinion" of GOOG's stock price, that's all. Some of that due to the factual numbers, some partially also due to probably "falling in love" with how well the puts treated me in 2008, over and over again. So i wanted to disclose that, so it's evident the author has a bearish opinion. (which also makes it NOT the best stock for me to trade, b/c of that too)
So on the the EWT, something i am not an expert at, but i do dabble in and slowly adding that to my t/a skill set. As the EWT traders i follow (kenny, daneric, tiny) have been very accurate on the market, and once 804 on the spx was breached, it sure does look like they said it would if that did happen, etc.
Geez, where's the point...ok the point is when i look at EWT, and the waves, and its classic presentations, every time i look at this GOOG weekly chart i think "wow, this looks just like the book". So i figured id bring it up, to get some feedback and education as well.
And if this count is correct. (i mean looking at the chart, i don't see how there could BE a different count!!!). And assuming that if goog BEATS ER, its probably means it would send it at least temporally OVER 412 (which would violate ewt, correct?)
Gaming earnings is a terrible trade, probably the WORST in the book. (I have learned from experience, the best way). But with RIMM beating, and goog actually had their EPS raised once within the past 30 days. (fyi....last qtr goog was lowered significantly right before the earnings, like the last 2 weeks before the earnings, they kept getting lowered every other day), i have a hunch that people are assuming goog blows out, and that's mostly baked in here to it's current price.
(even though i think goog has alot more DOWNside than upside, i'm gonna run a may straddle on it, for full disclosure, b/c again when "cult" stocks move they friggin MOVE, enough to where either side will likely go well over 100%, paying for the entire spread + profits)
So......does this EWT correct????
b/c it sure looks "pure" to me