Is EWT predicting GOOG will miss Earnings?

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IS?, its a question. Not a statement or prediction.

For the disclosure/record, goog was my fav short during 2008, and it did VERY well for me, very well.

Yet the 1 time i shorted it in 2009, i was stopped out (ie lost money).

Reason i mention that part, is to disclosure that I do feel its extremely overvalued, and the multiple is that of a GROWTH stock in a bull market. (valuations are never a reason to make short term trades anyway, but they do admittedly make me LOOK into charting a stock, for entries to get short or long, depending on its relative valuation to the market, etc)

I'll say one thing I know for sure, there are some stocks that I call "cult" stocks, you know what i'm referring too, the ones EVERYONE "falls in love with" goog, rimm, aapl, even gs, pot even".

The same ones that Joe Bob Smith "invested" a lil in back a few YEARS back, so well ya can't tell Joe Bob his stock is over-valued, b/c well Joe Bob purchased at IPO levels...so he make one heck of a trade, there's no debating that (.....for now).

Big tech seems to follow the cult theme the most, b/c people actually DO buy aapl stock b/c they "love their ipods", and they can relate to it in that sence, and just seems like "THE thing to invest in, etc etc". That's the same reason to me, that cult stocks have the sickest ralliest, and also the nastiest falls. Because they have such a heavy "common retail investor" baseline, that LOVES to chase the rallies, and also LOVES to overpanic and oversell as well.

Point to that, is that "cult" stocks...when they rally...THEY FRIGGING RALLY, and when they crack, BOY do they friggin crack. Ya do remember RIMM was 140, then they "missed" in sept 08, and nosedived to like 40. (no wonder it was Cramer's "stock of the month for Aug"....red alert, red alert)

Well rimm was smart (imo), they also LOWERED guidance too when they missed, so they REALLY tanked. But that also got all the bad news and put it all out there and kinda got it over with too.

(no wonder they blew out earnings this time!! they put the bar way down there, from last time)

BTW GOOG does not give it's own guidance, fyi. One of the rare companies that just lets the analysts pick that, they says its "irrelevant" to the company, etc.

At any rate, I just wanted to disclose that i do have a "bearish opinion" of GOOG's stock price, that's all. Some of that due to the factual numbers, some partially also due to probably "falling in love" with how well the puts treated me in 2008, over and over again. So i wanted to disclose that, so it's evident the author has a bearish opinion. (which also makes it NOT the best stock for me to trade, b/c of that too)

So on the the EWT, something i am not an expert at, but i do dabble in and slowly adding that to my t/a skill set. As the EWT traders i follow (kenny, daneric, tiny) have been very accurate on the market, and once 804 on the spx was breached, it sure does look like they said it would if that did happen, etc.

Geez, where's the point...ok the point is when i look at EWT, and the waves, and its classic presentations, every time i look at this GOOG weekly chart i think "wow, this looks just like the book". So i figured id bring it up, to get some feedback and education as well.

And if this count is correct. (i mean looking at the chart, i don't see how there could BE a different count!!!). And assuming that if goog BEATS ER, its probably means it would send it at least temporally OVER 412 (which would violate ewt, correct?)

Gaming earnings is a terrible trade, probably the WORST in the book. (I have learned from experience, the best way). But with RIMM beating, and goog actually had their EPS raised once within the past 30 days. (fyi....last qtr goog was lowered significantly right before the earnings, like the last 2 weeks before the earnings, they kept getting lowered every other day), i have a hunch that people are assuming goog blows out, and that's mostly baked in here to it's current price.

(even though i think goog has alot more DOWNside than upside, i'm gonna run a may straddle on it, for full disclosure, b/c again when "cult" stocks move they friggin MOVE, enough to where either side will likely go well over 100%, paying for the entire spread + profits)

So......does this EWT correct????

b/c it sure looks "pure" to me

i know EWT traders have "alternate" wave counts, and most of the time when i look at their "alternate counts", they look plausable, and i can see how either fits the pattern.

But probably ya cant tell me, that goog has an alternate pattern, other than THAT chart above......lol...b/c to me it looks like that chart is about the prettiest wave structure i have ever seen"

ALT1: even tho the primary count looks 100X more pure to me, i did 2 alternates

this one is an ABC correction, so if A=C, target is 425

ALT2: Anything over 395 violates this basically, seems highly unlikely.

IMPRESSION:

If goog breaks 412.11, its has a free ticket to likely 425 (per ABC, alt1)

If goog breaks 395, alt 2 is void, b/c wave 3 can not be the shortest

(alt 2 seems very unlikely to me, b/c of the weak wave 3)

If goog fails to break over 381, its not EITHER alternate pattern, which suggests

its the Primary count, and has already topped on wave 4, and now heading

into wave 5 (below 247)

TIA for any/all feedback elliott wavers....i did the alternate charts to look as non bias as i can, and BOTH alternate counts look to me like 1000X a stretch, as compared to the primary count.

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So hence the Topic Thread Title....