Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Gold (update)

On march 13th I expressed an opinion that gold would see 750 before 1000, from what I saw on the Monthly chart. (I still do)


Figure it's been 1 month, so its time to update it, and zoom in a little closer (via the weekly charts this time) It's doing the same thing now on the weekly charts, as it was a month ago on the monthly charts. (retesting a prior major support/resistance, from the bottom)
Gold is at a critical point here, which is going to sooner than later possibly determine it's longer term trend, very shortly. This is what stops and targets are for, and why ya never fall in love w/ a trend or trade and watch them like a hawk.

900 is the line in the sand here on a weekly close.
weekly rsi is also descending, but it's right at 50.

(IE: total indecision here, and caution from both the gold bulls and gold bears)

-a weekly close ABOVE 900 would be very bullish for gold
(a close and breakout ABOVE the trend line on this chart)

- if gold stalls at 900, and can not break over that trend line here soon and hold it on a close for a couple days in a row (in the next 2 weeks?), the rsi will drop below 50, and the current leg down will continue.

Please remember, MONTHLY charts are for meant for monthly moves, weekly charts for weekly moves, and so on, etc etc. (i have no idea what the daily or 60min are showing, b/c the weekly and monthly trump them for longer term trends)

If gold gets to 899 and starts "stalling or spasming" lol....I'll post the daily or even 60 min charts to zoom in and see. (i personally dont use the daily chart, when looking for long term trends, UNLESS the weekly is totally undecisive and "on the verge")


  1. http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com/new/thepracticalinvestor1/

    any thoughts

  2. he's on my blog roll, i follow Tony C videos

    my thoughts are the ones here....so i disagree w/ him on gold

  3. i agree with you erik, only time will tell, if that trendline cracks

    also tony's chart seems to have formed a head n shoulders pattern.

    peace out

    btw great work on your blog

  4. Great work, erik. Your blog is awesome and you've called it on gold.

  5. thank for the kind words, but it's not at 750 yet.

    i just wanted to bring up this is a serious decision spot for gold, to me.

  6. hey you.... gold is difficult to call here, I agree... but the dollar must fall to accomodate everything else, so.....

  7. the dollar falling accomodates commodities to go through the roof

    im bullish on the dollar, and i think we have lot more DE-flation than some think

    a rising dollar is market bearish

  8. http://dshort.com/articles/2009/inflation-update.html

    no inflation = no dollar fall