Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Earnings Earnings, all around

Buy the hype, sell the news

NO ONE wants to be short going into earnings.

Why would they? EVERYONE is blowing out, everyone...the economy must be strong!! Right?

The fear level was set so high from last qtr, the estimates have been set so low around the board, anyone and everyone can "blow-out" they HAVE BEEN!

I mean who didn't think aapl would not be green all day going into earnings?

Will the trend last all earnings season?
it very well might, no reason to buck it now.

A GAP DOWN on the following stocks is a BUY for tomorrow

why? yep...they all report Earnings tomorrow. AMZN reports at Noon, i believe, so that trend is only applicable for the morning, the others all report after the close, so watch them all for relative strength into the close.

Buy before earnings.....take profits immediately before......and short immediately after.

Ya can't tell me that hasn't been THE most profitable trade trend on about 99% of the stocks in this market here the past couple weeks. One of the oldest trends in the book.

A GAP UP is a short on any stock that has already reported.

for weakness tomorrow, look for the stocks that have ALREADY reported.
(yep that's mostly the financials)


  1. I printed your recommendations for tomorrow. I haven't done any Options trading yet. My accounts are set up for them now. These strategies will surely come in handy for me. As a starter, I will very likely, start with paper trades.
    BTW, we haven't seen your posts at the "muathe" board lately. Are you not a member anymore?
    Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and expertise.

  2. jpmoy,

    ms and bac are my 2 small spec plays i own may otm puts on
    --small lots though, (if) any go under..i think those 2 have a better chance than others


    im not, when he upgraded his site to that new format, i tried ie8 and mozilla browsers, and i can't see the right 1/3 of the screen, it's cut i cancelled. (don't know why that i could not fix that, but i couldn't)

  3. The dollar failed to break out from 26 (UUP). And gold is back to 890.

  4. Erik,

    Sorry, the upgrade did not work for your system. Since, I have been using Firefox as the default browser for years, the transition was seamless for me. Had I known about your problems, perhaps, my tech guys could have helped you.

    Anyway, it's probably better - you are busy with your blog, career, and school, etc.

    Good luck,

  5. Some information I found that AMGN is listed among top short. I got in amgn a couple days before its earning and sold right before the close today because I believe enough short covering and bargain hunting will be pushing the stock up right before. Don't trust this stock to be profitable during the global credit crisis and increase competition. The new Obama's health care policy might not help them either. Looking to re enter maybe in the low $40.

  6. Erik, any idea why AMGN popped up huge today after falling to low $45 yesterday after hour right based on its earning report? Its profit missed and earning fell about 4% plus the short fall on revenue. I decided not to gamble and took my profit at 46.65 and was relief to find out it missed earning and dropped to low $45. Any idea why it popped big today? I used to own amgn back more than 2 years ago between 68 to 69 and got killed bad. Is there more room to go up for amgn? Looking back amgn's price chart, it seems to be still cheap under $50. Thanks for your attention and feedback to my post.

  7. no clue....

    but whipsawing after earnings seems the norm here, don't it...

    goog shot up to like 411 in 45 seconds, then back down

    amzn shot down to like 76 in 45 seconds, then popped hard


    probably just big boys shaking the tree for all the weak longs and shorts it can...(my best guess)

    I dont know, i dont trade amgn much, the ONLY reason i brought it up for that 1 day was for a pre-earnings trade, and that's it.

    I don't have an opinion on amgn.

  8. My close watch list this week for cf,msft,amgn,mon,kim,dlk,egle. Pulled the triggers on amgn, msft, kim, dlk,egle. Sold kim today nearly its high, but amgn, msft,egle all in smaller gains. Still has dlk. I got mon yesterday, but it was so weak based on very small volume that I jumped out almost cost to cost right before close. I was trying to decide between mon and cf and picked mon instead. I think cf is a better pick than mon. Do you think cf will have a pull back next week to make a better re entry?