Tuesday, March 10, 2009

What now ? or AFTER thurs ?

who knows, (i surely don't) buy the "hype/hope"...SHORT the news has been the trend here for the longest...with the much STRONGER emphasis and trade of course on the "SHORT the NEWS" part of that combo. (duh, bear market)

What i think is going to be very interesting, is if they DON'T really say crap on Thurs, as most of us expect....(yea we are gonna sell off, that "should" be a given)...but just compare the velocity of the sell off. I mean all it "SHOULD" be equal to or GREATER than the entire run up into it, b/c it will all be hot air. But what if we sell off LESS after, than we did rallying into it?

If they come out and say "ahhhh the hell w/ suspending m2m, that crap aint happening, banks are toast".....hehehe.......well SKF "should" go back to 265 in a snap......but if it only goes back to 245, as subtle as that may sound or seem, i think it can be very telling. As that would mean the SHORT the EVENT is losing momentum.

I'm not "calling it will", heck...i think there is just a good chance if they say "NADA"...we crack to 615 on the spx! Just saying to be cognisant of the impulses both ways, and notice if there is a shift in the weight of the 2 compared, that's all. :o

Selling the news has been the trend here for the entire bear market. Selling the news and selling EVERY govt intervention/pop! That's the meat and bones of this bear, so just watch to make sure that punch is still packing. That's all im thinking and going to be watching closely.

at any rate....

As for those spx tickets:
.40 cents off on the spx to 720-725 call (oh shucks)
I honestly did "think" when we broke that rsi wedge at the open, we would get 720 today.
(rounding up counts right?)

upside.....line in the sand numbers, imo

784 (i would short the *(&^ outta the spx if we got this one)

i think they ALL will provide some "trouble" at least, for the bulls.
(selling out the remainder of my longs tommorow by close no matter what, that's just me)

charts attached to right.


- looks like to me we still got HIGHER prices to go here over the short term. I don't thinks its gonna happen in a straight line. But technically the most of all i would (well, this is looking ahead a lil here) i would LOVE to see us at WEEKLY RSI resistance, imo that would be yet AGAIN another awesome short entry,as it has been since 2007.



  1. erik,

    i read your posts on the skf board and appreciate you input on the mkt. you are very candid about your trading and how you view the mtk. i appreciate your opinions.

    do you think the selloff will be instant after the news thurs, or do you think it will be minimal and then fall off the cliff on friday? plus, do you think there is any way the mkt rallies above 804 even though it would violate EW and the current wave count?

  2. i would not bet against ewt.

    I think that we make NEW lower lowers BEFORE we break 804 to the upside.

    i don't know how instant OR how delayed the "sell off" will be.

    however whatever we are at on the spx right before the "words"...i do expect us to end the week LOWER than at that point (ie sell off).

    How hard, and how fast, and how "instant"...i dont know.

    Remember, bears AND bulls all like to "book profits" at the end of really good weeks. It works both ways.

    I would not want to be "long" the market on this friday.

  3. Dude, nobody is counting on anything meaningful coming out of the mark to market hearings nonsense.

    The only surprise would be if they actually did something; I agree we may sell off some into the weekend; but modestly. After that ... I have no idea.

    I know a lot of hedge fund folk and they seem to feel that a lot of the big blowup news events, or "black swan" type events, are behind us, and that suggests stability and possibly upside from here.

  4. I agree.....its a huge "buy the news" going into it.

    so to NOT "believe" its also going to be a "sell the news" or "LACK OF NEWS".....is way TOOO bullish.

    techicals to me are not strong enuf to long OR short here short term, jmo

  5. i meant buy the hype/hope RUN has already occured....

    its done, its over...tommorow IS thurs.

    so to STAY bullish thurs/fri.....does not make sence to me.

    technically, nothing convinces me enuf to be LONG or SHORT here, imo

  6. My point is, I don't think its even a "buy the news" event ...

    I agree ... playing small; going w/ what I see.

    I think the bank scare trade may be over for a while, and if that is so, the market may be more stable / stronger than anyone thinks. And Obama and Co. have started to get the message that they can't continue to dilly dally while the economy continues to collapse.

    If some amount of confidence returns, the market will be stronger. If indeed the uptick rule is coming back, the market will trade stronger. The shorts will continue to try to pound the market lower until it doesn't work anymore.

    If the market goes up, my strategy will be to lighten longs and establish better short positions and try to be hedged in both directions.

    I do think we may see a significant upside run sometime this year .. this month, next month, this summer, I don't know. It will confound you and I, but it is possible.

    A little tip ... Thursday afternoons are often marked by sudden selloffs (i have no idea why). If you see a market tomorrow hanging around the highs of the day, around 1:30 or 2:00 pm look for a downside break and if you see it, jump it.... you will know what it looks like.

  7. I meant buy the "hype"...ie MON--WED (which that's OVER now)

    Im looking for weakness too here to end the week.

    I'm waiting for a larger term sign here, (weekly charts)...when the weekly chart hits rsi resistance line, its been a gimme short entry t/a signal since MID 2007, every single time.

    It looks as if we are going to get another one here pretty soon (within a week maybe?)...we dont have to go UP to even truly get there soon. As the resistance line in angled downward, even new candle formed to the right, has a LOWER resistance line, each week. Something to watch as well.

    thanks, glta.