Wednesday, March 25, 2009

(cont)......871-875 target

After i wrote my blog entry, and perusing through my blog roll (to the right).

Cobra's Blog has a very gasping observation of the last push down being 18 days. 18 up of this one, takes it to (yep....that takes it to April 1st at the INTO April 2nd).
(mentioned b/c the 18 day part credit is not mine)

Here is my target, (estimate)

However, I'm much more set on the TIME target, than the price.
April 2=short time, IMO (no matter what the spx is at)

However this is an idea, to me of where i think it can do, b/c of how symmetrical this is panning out here.


  1. I see some heavy vix call activity here. Thoughts?

  2. bascically the same.

    spx has broken out

    vix has NOT broken down.

    this is NOT the end of the bear market.

    i think spx hits 870, and vix hits 38 before it tops.

  3. Yep I got a 875 target too. That time alignment is pretty amazing. I dont see us tanking though in April. Im prob 75% bullish going through April.

    Maybe a retest of 800 but big money has pushed too much into the market recently to pull it out right away. Im thinking it will take until May at the earliest for things to collapse again.

    As long as volume remains pretty steady, I am going to play the mirror image of the move down from 1000.

  4. Who knows, the past couple of days (yesterday 3pm, today 1 pm and 3 pm) were a big joke.

    This can crack at any time.

    I think Friday is ripe for a nice selloff; then possibly up for window dressing next week.

    SRS should do well from here, many REITs up for x-dividend, many go x-dividend tomorrow, say goodbye to those.

  5. 875 is an easy one to spot on a chart ... Feb9-10 and Jan 31.

    But at the end of the day, charts are a bunch of squiggly lines signifying nothing. 804 was supposed to be meaningful for a top. So was 780 and 823. It will stop where it stops.

    I see Dow can reverse to about 7550 and still not violate current V bottom uptrend. Maybe tomorrow ?

  6. Just saying. Remember those vix puts we were talking about before?

    My bear goggles were on so tight that I missed the vix put trade when the SPX rallied +20% in the past 2 weeks. Maybe there will be a chance to do the vix CALL trade again on the other leg - but adjusted for atm or itm instead of gambling on the outside chance of vix 50+ again.

  7. Yes, Erik, because we all know that trading based on news that everyone knows is always a great idea....NOT!!

    I expect the opposite...832 was the top for a months...down to 750 we go...we will know very soon who was right and who was wrong...and who has the loss and gains to prove it...

    but the honor of being right might be just as sweet....

    BANG BNAG!!!!

  8. I'm thinking of buying some atm or itm same month vix calls at vix 38. Thoughts?