Saturday, March 28, 2009

The M2M trade (some financial charts)

These stocks/eft's to me are some of the best primed up nicely to fall off a cliff here (imo)....starting MID next week.......bearing that the m2m "SELL THE NEWS" is of course correct, which I do believe it will be, and THEN some.

BLK (investment management)
CYN (bank)
GS (broker)
ZION (bank)
SNV (bank)
BAC (bank)
SPG (reit) .......gotta be "diversified", right?
FAS (etf)


  1. Erik,

    I am from the SKF board. Never left you a message, but have been following yours and several others' post.

    I believe regardless of the outcome of the M2M, we will get a sell off. If M2M get entirely eliminated, which I don't believe is possible, we will get a pop, and then sell off. A more likely scenario is we get a gap down once we get the announcement.

    However, with the new toxic plan, it may actually be a once of a life time opportunity to buy Bank stocks once we reach the short-term bottom in the next 2-3 weeks. Wouldn't you think so?

    For the medium term, I think REIT is an easier and safer bet. You don't have SRS in there, but I think it is a safer short to medium term play. And Oh, I can't agree more on SPG. Look at its balance sheet. Horrible... Why would someone long this stock at 30. I wouldn't do at 10.

    And what do you think of all the EWavers saying we will get a monster rally after this pull back. I tend to think so as well. What is a better time to rally the market? In the short term, all the bad news have pretty much been priced in. Bad job nos., factory nos....etc. Everyone expect these no.s to be bad.

    I believe with the latest toxic plan, we may actually get the credit market to ease up a bit. With credit flowing again, we may actually get some upside nos. for durable goods, vehicle sales, and housing sales as well. These are gong to pump up the market. And of couse, everyone will believe we see the end of the bear market.

    So... Banks get their toxic asset off their books with taxpayers money; and there is nothing we can do. So we may as well join them and buy up their shares in the next 3 weeks.


  2. i dont like SRS as much as Shorting URE or shorting SPG (which is srs's #1 holding)

    All the ultra levered etf's have lost tremendous value over time, so id much rather buy PUTS on URE or SPG, than buy calls on SRS, for that reason.

    U can chart SPG and SRS comparitivly, and see how well they inverse each other.

    My most recent post, is in regards to the "toxic plan". I don't think any "venture capitalists" are buying the assets at what the banks ask price here.

    My belief is that we will NOT get the real "monster" rally, untill the finacials are positioned to "grow". And i dont think that is possible unless 1/3 of them at least are eliminated.

    Even if all the toxic assets are eliminated, i still think there are also way too many banks for what we want to borrow. (too much supply, not enuf demand) Every corner is 2-3 banks, there are NOT that many customers to justify that. Irregardless of the asset dilema, i think they are oversatured on the market.

    I dont see the "big rally"...untill the excess supply (ie 1/3 or so of the banks) are eliminated.

  3. jmo......

    i dont think the finacials are by any means "fixed"....and that is also what i see holding us back from the "REAL" monster rally,