Sunday, December 6, 2009

Watch that Dollar (weekly)

Remember a weekly chart ALWAYS trumps a daily.

Friday's usd move was a monster
- the daily chart looks like a breakout
- however the weekly is right at major resistance now

I would like to see it pull back and consolidate, to then look to go short names like FCX
(which trade almost totally inverse to the dollar)

I still believe that in Dec the market will "float" higher due to the anemic volume.
stocks like goog, amzn, aapl with less correlation to the dollar to lead the way. Even though the dollar was strong Friday, the market however was up. With the NASDAQ leading the way. (makes sense, again as it is the lowest USD correlation, yet commodity stocks, such as FCX were hammered)

Bottom line: I am watching the USD weekly chart to break out of its rsi channel before a trend change to be confirmed.

- also, with the low holiday volume, I would not be surprised to see stocks stay afloat and strong even WITH a confirmed USD reversal.
- If so, will wait to after the USD weekly breakout AND after Jan 1st to short this casino.
Disclosure: 100% cash
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