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$USD looks like it's going to tip it's hand for the INTERMEDIATE trend direction and .....in the next couple days.
The $USD is at a RESISTANCE level here. (yes.....no typo, "resistance" level)
What I mean, is that it is "back-testing" what used to be a critical support level. It can either:
a) stall here over the next couple days, which is suggestive that the dollar IS headed lower in the intermediate term.
--OR--
b) break back INTO the same channel it had before, and regain the prior major support level, and head higher over the intermediate term.
intermediate term: meaning over the next couple weeks
- Daily RSI - right at prior support, "back-testing" from the bottom
- Daily Price - right at prior support, "back-testing" from the bottom.
the move today, just brought it back to where the "test" is.
To me RSI (and any 0-100 oscillator type tool for that matter) is best used for PATTERNS (narrowing wedge, double top or bottom w/ a divergence, etc) much more than the just actual number or level it currently resides at.
- imagine what happened if every time indicators got "a high level" and one went went to SHORT this rally, they would be blown out.
- imagine what happened if every time indicators got "a low level" from (sep-nov 08) if one went LONG the market, they would be blown out.
Today "might" of been just a dead cat bounce for the dollar
Today "might" of been the start of an true uptrend for the dollar
In summary, I think that the $USD fate over the next couple weeks will likely be "shown" here over the next couple days.
stay tuned......
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