Thursday, October 29, 2009

3rd QTR Recovery "CONFIRMED"

Well its official now, USA is back to growth.

Haven't been posting much, and this will be short as well. Busy in transition.

GS controlled that one as well.
Lowering the bar the day prior, then CNBC announces how "ironic" they have been on point of late and they "better not be" this time.
GS didn't think GDP would be 2.7, GS did that b/c they traded that both ways. (short wed, then switched to long 1 min before the close)...GS made that call b/c they were trading the same news they produced. (imo)

I was actually short spy Mon-Wed, Once I saw they were NOT ramping up the market into the gdp, starting Monday, which i suspected they would I got short. Once i saw gs revise the est down the day PRIOR, after 4 consecitive red days..... it smelled way too fishy, so I went back into cash yesterday, and was wary of the pop today. (didn't play it long)

I had assumed it would be a buy the hype, sell the news. However since the market was in pullback mode, gs just simply extended it into a short the news, cover the event scenario, as they rocked the house both ways on this one. It was beutifull too how they operate. Within 3 minutes after their "revised" numbers, CNBC made sure to broadcast how very accurate they have been with these calls. The market would of probably been GREEN on wed, if gs had said nothing. Just as the market would of been probably flat today, as well. But hey, there is alot more money to be made by whipsawing it and frontrunning the same calls your making.

Will be going back in short Friday (tommorow) at the close, more than likely.
If you look back at the performace of Friday's since March, you can see it has the highest percentage of up days. And of all the larger down days we have had over the past few months, (-2oo) type. I don't believe any have happened on a Friday. (i dont have all this written do your own dd). However, I have noticed that Friday's lean bullish on the most consistant basis.

Next week we have FOMC and unemployment. FOMC's historically are common pivot days, and recall the last FOMC, it was no different. Everyone one and their mother expects rates to stay at zero and it to be assured they will for a long time. Hence anything LESS than this, imo will cause a dollar rally. Again, remember the last FOMC, that's when the dollar started to show life, and the SPX moved from 1080 to 1019.

yea, the DOW is back within an earmark of the 10k level again. (great mom/pop headline catcher)...but look at the RUT and the NDX, they are no where near their tops. The NDX is the major leading index too.

I think Friday will be a small UP day....1080 tops (small: after a large move it then tends to be consolidation and UP b/c of Friday's history), then starting Monday we to resume the larger short term trend back down and revisit 1042 or 1019.
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