Sunday, August 16, 2009

Unemployment "up-side surprise" curve

It very well might just be starting here, and hitting it's sweet spot over the next couple months.

For the "reportable" data that is....

Just a heads up...... don't be surprised to get a couple more "better than expected" unemployment numbers in the next couple months. I would almost expect it.

In a nutshell, a large curve of people are about to fall OFF the books in terms of their benefits running out over the next couple months. (ie less to "report")
....details below


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/unemployed-workers-starting-to-exhaust.html

http://nelp.3cdn.net/fc4bd4e4ad6f2e26c6_oqm6i2qrf.pdf
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