Monday, November 30, 2009

Cant stop the dollar drop

see below chart, for a technical STRONG signal of something to look for when a bottom and reversal are CONFIRMED. Until that line gets broke, there are sharks in the water.

maybe it reverses tomorrow? (i have not a clue, however i doubt it)
- which is why I will just sit and wait for it reverse and confirm prior.

Take a look at the USD performance last DEC, they tanked it hard. Worst month for the USD for the year in 2008. (no wonder dec 08 was mildly bullish huh?)

Too scary and high in the clouds to go long here.
No reason to short the market going into the holidays, the chances are NOT favorable.
- besides all the window, eoy theories...a known fact is that Holidays=anemic volume
- another known fact is anemic volume = bullish (in case you haven't noticed the past 10 months)

Ideally, to me the best swing trade plan/scenario is float and grind higher all the way up into years end, then buy vix calls on the last day of the year. The anemic volume can bring the vix lower than it intends to be. Perhaps im bias, because last year the vix calls when 400% in a week to start the new year.

I don't see the market falling too much until 2010 get's here, imo. Mainly due to the closer we get to 2010, and the holidays the lower the volume......

EDIT (add): here is a little historical data on December
Is is sell in May and go away.....or Buy in October and get yourself sober?

Sunday, November 22, 2009

The continuing watch for the USD intermediate to major bottom/reversal signal.

The blue line annotated to be broken/taken out, is the only ticket I see.