Gold (update)

On march 13th I expressed an opinion that gold would see 750 before 1000, from what I saw on the Monthly chart. (I still do)

http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/03/gold-will-see-750-before-1000.html

Figure it's been 1 month, so its time to update it, and zoom in a little closer (via the weekly charts this time) It's doing the same thing now on the weekly charts, as it was a month ago on the monthly charts. (retesting a prior major support/resistance, from the bottom)

....

Gold is at a critical point here, which is going to sooner than later possibly determine it's longer term trend, very shortly. This is what stops and targets are for, and why ya never fall in love w/ a trend or trade and watch them like a hawk.

900 is the line in the sand here on a weekly close.
weekly rsi is also descending, but it's right at 50.

(IE: total indecision here, and caution from both the gold bulls and gold bears)

-a weekly close ABOVE 900 would be very bullish for gold
(a close and breakout ABOVE the trend line on this chart)

- if gold stalls at 900, and can not break over that trend line here soon and hold it on a close for a couple days in a row (in the next 2 weeks?), the rsi will drop below 50, and the current leg down will continue.

Please remember, MONTHLY charts are for meant for monthly moves, weekly charts for weekly moves, and so on, etc etc. (i have no idea what the daily or 60min are showing, b/c the weekly and monthly trump them for longer term trends)

If gold gets to 899 and starts "stalling or spasming" lol....I'll post the daily or even 60 min charts to zoom in and see. (i personally dont use the daily chart, when looking for long term trends, UNLESS the weekly is totally undecisive and "on the verge")

My take on the NASDAQ action today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJmBPCYt5LY

Never show your best hand first

IE: Wells Fargo

After WFC pre-announced their "record earnings" on Thurs, did anyone really think the overall broad market could continue to match that kinda momentum?

I haven't dissected INTC's earnings here, but the articles i read seem mixed, actually most sound bullish. "intell beats the street, sales improving, etc". Again i have not read the entire report yet, but it doesn't "sound" that terrible?

that doesn't matter, what matters is the market's REACTION, and i see them down 5% in the A/H, that's what i see, and that's all that matters is the reaction.

What was the market expecting? something like WFC?

That's why ya don't show your best hand too early in the game, and i feel that WFC set the market up to fall here. There is NO ONE going to duplicate those kinda earnings like WFC and GS did. (yet see both of those today...they were trading on life support)

Yes, it's b/c they (well gs on record) is selling to pay back tarp. However they would not have this opportunity and entry to if they did not blow out earnings like they did. So both are part of the overall picture.

Of course WFC and GS both have other motives here and want to pay back tarp, etc etc. So they wanted to get this out there ASAP, and get the boost in the share price, so they can dilute to pay back TARP.

(which is another gamble either way, b/c i don't think its a "lock" they will be allowed to)
maybe they will, maybe they wont....no reason to speculate either. But to be cognisant of either of each, yes....one must be.

Now i do agree that its still too early to jump on any negative momentum of INTC, as we saw that Alcoa sure had an "initial" knee jerk down reaction after they missed, then went parabolic in the days after that. (of course that was helped by the overall market momentum too, but still to be respected none the less)

So on to INTC, and they very well might go UP tomorrow, like AA...who knows? (i don't)

But take a look at Financials here, they were the MOST down YTD, and the expectations were basically nothing. So they have so far BLOWN away the earnings, and got a huge pop (well till today)

Reason (along w/ the charts) i like the Nasdaq short here for the next couple weeks, is they are basically the OPPOSITE of the financials here. The expectations for these things is VERY high, and they are UP the most YTD.

Lower the bar really low, there are going to be some huge upside surprises (wfc, gs)

Raise the bar really high, there are going to be some "decent" earnings, that are still disappointments.

If INTC beat estimates and its down here (even if it's just for today). Then what's gonna happen when a big cult tech names flat out MISSES? Because it's going to happen, we don't know to whom, but it will for a few, and its gonna drag down the index big time. (whew, its gonna be ugly) b/c there is not much love here for those tech guys. The bar is TOO high, and some people look like they fell in love w/ the WFC report, like it was a sign of things to come for others. (i hope no one really thought that, b/c it was all the m2m changes on the "books") But it sure does look like here, that WFC set the bar too high too soon for the broad market.

Fundamentally, in this economy, i don't "THINK" intc even be should be down in the a/h by 5%. I don't.

Fundamentally, who cares? Only thing that matters is the markets reaction. And if they react negative to those earnings, (even if its only 4-5 in a/h)..they are going to likely react VERY negative to when someone like intc flat out misses, or lowers fwd guidance. *intell was soft on fwd guidance, but again i have no read the report totally, nor do i plan too, over-analyzing the valuations and fundamentals IMPAIRS profitable trading in my opinion, b/c all that matters is how the market reacts, and that's all* I have no idea what other big tech names are going to report, no one does.

But i feel pretty confident that overall INTC's numbers will not the that bad compared to many others.

So if the market is not showing them love here, again...whats it gonna do when a big tech misses? ......we shall very soon find that out.

and that's why ya don't flash your best hand in the 1st qtr of the game, but i guess WFC couldn't resist.

tech is likely in for some trouble here for next couple weeks.
(i said that yesterday though, via the charts) :o)

Entry set-up to Short the Nasdaq (qqqq)

Very nice set up here, if this is a double top, if its NOT, the stop is 1% -2% away.

I Love the low risk clean set up's, like these, with the stop so close.

Stop: @ 1670 on the overall Nasdaq Index (very tight stop, that's only a 1.5% risk from here, so why i like the entry so much)

Target: 29.34 for qqqq

(1500 on the Nasdaq)

Hedge Play of the Week, April 13-17 (LCC/DRYS & BIDU)

LCC: long ---or---- DRYS: long

BIDU: short

I would really like see airlines get a pull back here ideally, early in the week to get a good re-entry price.... but intermediate term i am bullish this sector.

Same w/ DRYS, like to get a little pull back, to be "ideal" of course.